Flat Circle War Room - 4/14/26
What I’m reading, listening to and watching this week, as well as updates about next episodes.
Closing the Air and Missile Defense Gap in the Indo-Pacific
https://warontherocks.com/closing-the-air-and-missile-defense-gap-in-the-indo-pacific/
The article lays out the need for internationally coordinated air and missile defense in the event of a conflict in the Indo-Pacific. This, based on modelling from the Stimson Center that predicted,
“the United States would likely run out of Patriot and [upper-tier, terminal-phase missile] interceptors within the first 24 hours of a military conflict.”
Toward that end, the United States Studies Centre held a tabletop exercise with participants from the US, Japan, Australia, South Korea and Taiwan. The article provides a high-level overview of the outcome of that exercise.
This then led me to the USSC’s full exercise report. It’s a long, but fascinating read:
Missiles and multipolarity: Can an Indo-Pacific coalition defeat China’s missile overmatch?
Key takeaway:
Coalition Integrated Air and Missile Defense (IAMD) operating concept — which we label ‘Long Sense/Short Defence’ — centring on two elements. The first is that the partner under attack focuses on point defence through a combination of high- and low-cost-per-engagement effectors. The second is that other JASTU partners support point defence through mobile and long-range sensing that provides redundancy and early warning to point defence sensors.
This then led me to an article I read a few months back and used for research for episode 20:
Cratering Effects: Chinese Missile Threats to US Air Bases in the Indo-Pacific
It covers how a Chinese missile attack could degrade USAF operations across the Indo-Pacific, including projections of how many hours air bases and airfields could be rendered inoperative. Further, it looks at countermeasures, from dispersed forward basing, to runway repair, and missile defense. This article was extremely helpful in planning episode 20 for the PLA’s initial missile ‘blitz”, with PLARF missile capabilities, estimated numbers of missiles by types, their range and locations.
From there… relatedly, with what’s happening in the real-world, was this article:
Iran’s Asymmetric Counterair Campaign: Attacking the U.S. Air Force’s Nests and Eggs
The article covers Iran’s counter missile and drone attack strategy and success against US assets in the Middle East, including the damage or destruction of AN/TPY-2 primary sensor of the Terminal High Altitude Area Defense (THAAD) battery, the damage of one E-3G and the loss of another.
Key takeaway:
This is a template, not an anomaly. Iran’s asymmetric counter campaign is a harbinger of air wars to come.
Piggybacking on that article is this one:
Operation Epic Fury U.S. Aircraft Losses Visualized
https://www.twz.com/air/operation-epic-fury-u-s-aircraft-losses-visualized
Pretty clear what Iran’s priority targets are, with lessons clearly learned from Ukraine’s Operation Spiderweb. How we have not had US bomber or ISR aircraft struck on US soil from drone operations is a bit stunning to me, frankly.
And then I stumbled on this article, which shows US early warning systems that were hit by Iran:
New Images Provide Clearest View Yet of Damage to U.S.-made AN/FPS-132 Early Warning Radar in Qatar
https://theaviationist.com/2026/04/11/early-warning-radar-al-udeid-damage/
These photos were far too eerily similar to the Aegis Ashore system I attacked and destroyed by drones in episode 19.
Next Episode Update
The shot sheet for episode 22 is complete (84 scenes in total) and I had a web conference with Lew about the upcoming Unreal Engine scenes which will be used for character close-ups. He’s already starting building sets. Meanwhile I’ll start the voice-over narration for 22 and begin filming using DCS, ARMA and SeaPower.
I’m also working on refinements on the script for episode 23. And lastly… I had a great meeting with Michael Hilliard last week of The Redline Podcast to knock around thoughts and ideas about upcoming Season 3 when the war returns to the Baltics.
Lots happening. More soon!
John